Set 1 Winner: Arnaboldi vs Arnaldi
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$316.47
Liquidity
$9.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 03UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 164.3h
- 15:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Arnaboldi and Matteo Arnaldi in the Cagliari, originally scheduled for April 29, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to “Arnaboldi” if Federico Arnaboldi wins the first set. It will resolve to “Arnaldi” if Matteo Arnaldi wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.