Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.99
Liquidity
$5.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 200.2h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 44¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik
Sports · Vol $3.3K
- 46¢0.0
Set 1 Winner: Baez vs Bublik
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 45¢0.0
Sebastian Baez vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 78¢0.0
Baez vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 57¢0.0
Baez vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Baez vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Baez vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 29¢0.0
Baez vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Sebastian Baez in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bublik" if Alexander Bublik wins by 2 or more sets than Sebastian Baez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Baez." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:47:42 GMT, YES is priced at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
