Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bellucc-svajda-2026-06-29-first-set-total-8pt5 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bellucc-svajda-2026-06-29-first-set-total-8pt5/markdown.

SportsExpires Jul 6, 2026

Creator

Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Probability

51¢

-12.0pp

24h

-16.0pp

24h Vol

$15.5K

Liquidity

$50.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

74% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Paper governor not run here

This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

Momentum / follow-throughclear
74% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Costs / sizing

Research score: Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
Capacity: Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
Liquidity: Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.

Explanation packet2026-06-16.1

DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority

What can be learned

Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpaper_governor_policy+2

live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 6, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
atptour.com
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

51¢

Jun 27, 2026, 08:00 UTCJun 28, 2026, 15:51 UTC

updated 15:51:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-28T15-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 51¢; -12.0pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 16.0pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability recovers above 56¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 6, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
atptour.com
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jul 6, 10:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 186.1h
LOW
15:51Signal
Momentum down
Probability moved down 16.0pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
HIGH

Price movement

-16.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.

updated 15:51:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 15:51:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Zachary Svajda in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5"?

As of Sun, 28 Jun 2026 15:51:27 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.0pp in the last 24 hours, -12.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 6, 2026 (2026-07-06T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $50.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

19 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket