Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5)

• 01
  Price move

  Up 16pp over 24h

  Now 74¢; +13.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Momentum observation firing

  Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover.

• 03
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 04
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 26.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

• BUYBORGES
  Difficult-Artificer$300.00@ 38¢
  3m ago

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Nuno Borges in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins by 2 or more sets than Nuno Borges, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Borges." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.