UnclassifiedExpires May 4, 2026

Ostrava: Raul Brancaccio vs Toby Samuel

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+58.5pp

24h Vol

$60.8K

Liquidity

$53.67

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 23:00Apr 28, 2026, 12:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 58pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 1133.7× turnover

    $60.8k traded against $54 of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 140h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $54 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 05
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 139.8h

    LOW
  • 12:13Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 140h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+58.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +73.0pp at 11:00 (to 100¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 12:00 · +73.0pp → 100¢
  • 11:00 · +73.0pp → 100¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Raul Brancaccio and Toby Samuel in the Ostrava, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raul Brancaccio' if Raul Brancaccio advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Raul Brancaccio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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