Ignacio Buse vs. Niels McDonald: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Probability
22¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$50.00
Liquidity
$599.09
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $599 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 23, 10:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 168.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 34¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $5.00
- 50¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 56¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 37¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 80¢0.0
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs McDonald
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 41¢0.0
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $242.85
- 41¢0.0
Buse vs. McDonald: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 92¢-0.8
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Sports · Vol $2.9M
- 21¢-42.0
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 0¢-59.0
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 100¢+41.4
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $696.7K
- 1¢0.0
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $593.8K
- 18¢0.0
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Sports · Vol $513.8K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Niels McDonald in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Ignacio Buse vs. Niels McDonald: Total Sets O/U 2.5"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 10:25:50 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T10:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$50.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $50.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $599.09. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.