SportsExpires May 13, 2026
Creator

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo

Probability

21¢

1h

-11.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$77.4K

Liquidity

$49.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 23:00May 6, 2026, 16:47
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T16-47Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.6× turnover

    $77.4k traded against $49.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 164.7h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Alejandro Tabilo in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Alejandro Tabilo. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:47:46 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -11.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$77.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $77.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $49.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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