Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)
Probability
0¢
1h
-24.4pp
24h
-44.0pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$35.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 44pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -24.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 44.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 159h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 4
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 159.2h
- 17:50SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 44.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 17:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 159h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-44.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Cobolli" if Flavio Cobolli wins by 2 or more sets than Camilo Ugo Carabelli, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Carabelli." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- official ATP resultOfficial sports resultatptour.com
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.