SportsExpires Jun 10, 2026
Creator

Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter

Probability

50¢

1h

-13.0pp

24h

+21.0pp

24h Vol

$84.3K

Liquidity

$25.8K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
29¢
Jun 2, 2026, 17:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 10:32 UTC
updated 10:32:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T10-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 21pp over 24h

    Now 50¢; -13.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.3× turnover

    $84.3k traded against $25.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 45¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

live monitoring

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official ATP Tour data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 10, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 141.5h

    LOW

Price movement

+21.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

updated 10:32:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:32:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventCenturion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Donski and Edward Winter in the Centurion 2, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Donski' if Alexander Donski advances against Edward Winter. This market will resolve to 'Edward Winter' if Edward Winter advances against Alexander Donski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:32:16 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +21.0pp in the last 24 hours, -13.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 10, 2026 (2026-06-10T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$84.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $84.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $25.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket