Oeiras 4: Liam Draxl vs Emilio Nava
Probability
38¢
1h
+13.5pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$10.3K
Liquidity
$25.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 38¢; +13.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 10.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 33¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 158.3h
- 18:44SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 10.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+10.0pp over the last 24h, now 38¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
2- BUYEMILIO NAVA2m ago
- BUYEMILIO NAVA2m ago
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Liam Draxl and Emilio Nava in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Emilio Nava. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Liam Draxl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Oeiras 4: Liam Draxl vs Emilio Nava"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 18:44:09 GMT, YES is priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +10.0pp in the last 24 hours, +13.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $25.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
