Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud
Probability
35¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.4K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $14.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 200.6h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 80¢0.0pp
Fokina vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 39¢0.0pp
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Ruud
Other · Vol $0.00
- 38¢0.0pp
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 56¢0.0pp
Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 43¢0.0pp
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0pp
Fokina vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 48¢0.0pp
Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 30¢0.0pp
Fokina vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Casper Ruud in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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