OtherExpires Apr 20, 2026

Galarneau vs. Uchida: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.3pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:41
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 18:41Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexis Galarneau and Kaichi Uchida in the Busan, scheduled for April 13 2026. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 20, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.