SportsExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus

Probability

52¢

1h

-3.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$85.9K

Liquidity

$75.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
66¢
May 16, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 11:32 UTC
updated 11:32:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T11-32Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 25, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 188.5h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.

updated 11:32:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 11:32:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventHamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Max Schoenhaus in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Max Schoenhaus. This market will resolve to 'Max Schoenhaus' if Max Schoenhaus advances against Marcos Giron. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 11:32:12 GMT, YES is priced at 52% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -3.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$85.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $85.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $75.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket