Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Max Schoenhaus
Probability
51¢
1h
-7.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$19.7K
Liquidity
$86.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 51¢; -7.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Divergence observation firing
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -7.0pp vs. 24h +2.5pp.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 162.2h
- 14:46SignalHIGH
Short-term vs. trend divergence
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -7.0pp vs. 24h +2.5pp.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
13- 81¢+29.0
Holmgren vs. Schoenhaus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $153.19
- 51¢-17.5
August Holmgren vs. Max Schoenhaus: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢+0.5
Set 1 Winner: Holmgren vs Schoenhaus
Sports · Vol $5.00
- 51¢0.0
Holmgren vs. Schoenhaus: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 55¢+5.0
Holmgren vs. Schoenhaus: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-1.5
Holmgren vs. Schoenhaus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $136.99
- 51¢-1.0
Holmgren vs. Schoenhaus: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 49¢-2.0
Knicks vs. 76ers
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 19¢+1.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.3M
- 66¢0.0
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Sports · Vol $787.2K
- 0¢-21.9
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Sports · Vol $704.6K
- 0¢-33.5
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports · Vol $699.9K
- 1¢0.0
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $676.7K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between August Holmgren and Max Schoenhaus in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Max Schoenhaus. This market will resolve to 'Max Schoenhaus' if Max Schoenhaus advances against August Holmgren. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Max Schoenhaus"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 14:46:35 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -7.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$19.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $20.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $86.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
