Liege: Tsung-Hao Huang vs Guy Den Ouden
Probability
1¢
1h
-4.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$4.7K
Liquidity
$42.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official ATP Tour data
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 1¢ current price
Orrery verification task Liege: Tsung-Hao Huang vs Guy Den Ouden State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Liege: Tsung-Hao Huang vs Guy Den Ouden State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 14, 13:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 166.3h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢0.0
Liege: Completed Match: Tsung-Hao Huang vs Guy Den Ouden
Sports · Vol $4.04
- 50¢0.0
Huang vs. Ouden: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 49¢0.0
Tsung-Hao Huang vs. Guy Den Ouden: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Huang vs. Ouden: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 25¢0.0
Set Handicap: Huang (-1.5) vs Ouden (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Huang vs. Ouden: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Set 2 Winner: Huang vs Ouden
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Huang vs. Ouden: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Tsung-Hao Huang and Guy Den Ouden in the Liege, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tsung-Hao Huang' if Tsung-Hao Huang advances against Guy Den Ouden. This market will resolve to 'Guy Den Ouden' if Guy Den Ouden advances against Tsung-Hao Huang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Liege: Tsung-Hao Huang vs Guy Den Ouden"?
As of Tue, 07 Jul 2026 15:11:27 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -4.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 14, 2026 (2026-07-14T13:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $42.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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