SportsExpires Jul 6, 2026
Creator

Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs

Probability

62¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-8.0pp

24h Vol

$25.5K

Liquidity

$65.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Divergence / timeline check

50% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Confidence below paper gate

Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Divergence / timeline checkclear

    50% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
43
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$5k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$65k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernellearning_report_metricspromotion_gate+2
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
62¢
Jun 27, 2026, 05:00 UTCJun 28, 2026, 18:01 UTC
updated 18:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-28T18-01Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 8pp over 24h

    Now 62¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -8.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 67¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official ATP Tour data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 6, 10:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 184.0h

    LOW
  • 18:01Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -8.0pp.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 62¢.

updated 18:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 18:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Ugo Humbert and Zizou Bergs in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ugo Humbert' if Ugo Humbert advances against Zizou Bergs. This market will resolve to 'Zizou Bergs' if Zizou Bergs advances against Ugo Humbert. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs"?

As of Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:01:30 GMT, YES is priced at 62% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 6, 2026 (2026-07-06T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$25.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $27.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $65.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket