SportsExpires May 20, 2026
Creator

Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)

Probability

0¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-44.5pp

24h Vol

$19.4K

Liquidity

$363.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 20, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
official ATP result
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 12, 2026, 23:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 00:28 UTC
updated 00:28:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T00-28Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 44pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $19.4k traded against $363.4k of visible liquidity (0.05× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 44.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 20, 11:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 154.5h

    LOW
  • 00:28Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 44.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 00:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-44.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 00:28:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 00:28:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Luciano Darderi in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins by 2 or more sets than Luciano Darderi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Darderi." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 00:28:36 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -44.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$19.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $19.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $363.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket