Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Probability
73¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$11.3K
Liquidity
$328.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 73¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $11.3k traded against $328.6k of visible liquidity (0.03× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 171.2h
Price movement
+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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