SportsExpires Jun 9, 2026
Creator

Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5

Probability

64¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.5pp

24h Vol

$8.8K

Liquidity

$5.8K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
atptour.com
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
64¢
Jun 1, 2026, 07:00 UTCJun 2, 2026, 11:25 UTC
updated 11:25:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-02T11-25Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 64¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.5× turnover

    $8.8k traded against $5.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 9, 09:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 165.6h

    LOW

Price movement

+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 64¢.

updated 11:25:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:25:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventRoland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Joao Fonseca in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam statistics.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

roland garros

Reason

Roland Garros — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5"?

As of Tue, 02 Jun 2026 11:25:21 GMT, YES is priced at 64% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 9, 2026 (2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$8.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket