Set 1 Winner: Monteiro vs Andrade

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 6.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Andres Andrade in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Monteiro” if Thiago Monteiro wins the first set. It will resolve to “Andrade” if Andres Andrade wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.