Prado vs. Seggerman: Match O/U 21.5
Probability
56¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 177.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
12- 72¢0.0
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryan Seggerman
Other · Vol $327.93
- 75¢0.0
Prado vs. Seggerman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Prado vs. Seggerman: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 27¢0.0
Prado vs. Seggerman: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 38¢0.0
Juan Carlos Prado vs. Ryan Seggerman: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 66¢0.0
Set 1 Winner: Prado vs Seggerman
Other · Vol $0.00
- 45¢0.0
Prado vs. Seggerman: Match O/U 22.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Prado vs. Seggerman: Match O/U 23.5
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Carlos Prado and Ryan Seggerman in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Prado vs. Seggerman: Match O/U 21.5"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:52:24 GMT, YES is priced at 56% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T10:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
