Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Probability
100¢
1h
+49.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$25.00
Liquidity
$111.37
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $111 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 100¢ current price
Orrery verification task Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 State: Pinned near YES — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 12, 09:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 167.3h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 24¢0.0
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak
Sports · Vol $66.8K
- 55¢0.0
Birmingham: Completed Match: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak
Sports · Vol $22.84
- 50¢0.0
Sho Shimabukuro vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $235.49
- 50¢0.0
Set 1 Winner: Shimabukuro vs Majchrzak
Sports · Vol $3.29
- 50¢0.0
Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 53¢0.0
Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $72.86
- 50¢0.0
Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $7.00
- 0¢0.0
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $12.5M
- 0¢+0.1
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $5.8M
- 0¢-0.1
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $3.5M
- 2¢0.0
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $2.0M
- 34¢-1.0
Knicks vs. Spurs
Sports · Vol $1.9M
- 0¢0.0
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Kamil Majchrzak in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
tennis matchReason
Generic tennis-match marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Shimabukuro vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:10:32 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +49.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 12, 2026 (2026-06-12T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$25.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $111.37. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.