SportsExpires May 5, 2026

Cagliari: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mattia Bellucci

Probability

68¢

1h

+14.0pp

24h

+12.0pp

24h Vol

$308.4K

Liquidity

$89.0K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 5, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 23:00Apr 29, 2026, 17:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 12pp over 24h

    Now 68¢; +14.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.5× turnover

    $308.4k traded against $89.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 12.0pp in 24h with 3.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 63¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 134.4h

    LOW
  • 17:38Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 12.0pp in 24h with 3.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+12.0pp over the last 24h, now 68¢.

Biggest hourly move: +11.5pp at 17:00 (to 63¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +11.5pp → 63¢
  • 15:00 · +8.5pp → 60¢
  • 14:00 · +4.5pp → 56¢
  • 12:00 · +4.5pp → 56¢
  • 11:00 · +4.5pp → 56¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

3
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventCagliari: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mattia Bellucci
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Mattia Bellucci in the Cagliari, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Mattia Bellucci. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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