SportsExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone

Probability

32¢

1h

+17.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$182.0K

Liquidity

$80.9K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
28¢
May 16, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 13:24 UTC
updated 13:24:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T13-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 32¢; +17.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.3× turnover

    $182.0k traded against $80.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +17.0pp vs. 24h -3.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 25, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 186.6h

    LOW
  • 13:24Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +17.0pp vs. 24h -3.0pp.

    HIGH

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 32¢.

updated 13:24:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 13:24:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventGeneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Mariano Navone in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 13:24:50 GMT, YES is priced at 32% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.0pp in the last 24 hours, +17.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$182.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $182.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $80.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket