Istanbul: Mert Naci Turker vs Alafia Ayeni
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.3K
Liquidity
$26.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 26, 09:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 169.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 44¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 32¢0.0
Set 1 Winner: Turker vs Ayeni
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 67¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 22¢0.0
Turker vs. Ayeni: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 33¢0.0
Mert Naci Turker vs. Alafia Ayeni: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 31¢+1.0
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 33¢-3.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $898.5K
- 2¢-0.2
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $838.4K
- 95¢+16.0
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $831.7K
- 1¢0.0
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $699.9K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Mert Naci Turker and Alafia Ayeni in the Istanbul, originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mert Naci Turker' if Mert Naci Turker advances against Alafia Ayeni. This market will resolve to 'Alafia Ayeni' if Alafia Ayeni advances against Mert Naci Turker. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Istanbul: Mert Naci Turker vs Alafia Ayeni"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 08:29:48 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$6.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.