Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejo

• 01
  Price move

  Down 11pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -28.2pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 1.8× turnover

  $59.6k traded against $33.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 03
  Active signal

  Momentum observation firing

  Probability moved down 11.3pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Alvarez Varona and Adolfo Vallejo in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Alvarez Varona' if Nicolas Alvarez Varona advances against Adolfo Vallejo. This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Nicolas Alvarez Varona. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.