Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)
Probability
46¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+40.8pp
24h Vol
$100.60
Liquidity
$5.69
Probability (last 7 days)
+34.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 41pp over 24h
Now 46¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 91.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 15:07SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.4pp
to 46¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.4pp
to 47¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.1pp
to 47¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.5pp
to 46¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 48¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 48¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.8pp
to 48¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.9pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.8pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.4pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 45.0pp
to 50¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming A-League game, scheduled for December 27 at 1:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Sydney FC" if Sydney FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Auckland FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on a-league.com.au. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 27, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.a-league.com.au/Ambiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (91.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).