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OtherExpires Dec 27, 2025

Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)

Probability

46¢

1h

-1.5pp

24h

+40.8pp

24h Vol

$100.60

Liquidity

$5.69

Probability (last 7 days)

+34.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 41pp over 24h

    Now 46¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 91.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 15:07Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 40.4pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 42.4pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 42.1pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 40.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 43.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 43.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 42.8pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 44.9pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 44.8pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 44.4pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 45.0pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.7pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming A-League game, scheduled for December 27 at 1:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Sydney FC" if Sydney FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Auckland FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on a-league.com.au. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 27, 2025
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.a-league.com.au/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (91.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).