Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$297.9K
Liquidity
$37.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 7.9× turnover
$297.9k traded against $37.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 7.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 4
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 5
Expiry in 1h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.4h
- 14:35SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 7.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 14:35SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.3pp
to 100¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.6pp
to 99¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.1pp
to 99¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 99¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 99¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 98¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.3pp
to 99¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 98¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 98¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.8pp
to 97¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.6pp
to 97¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.8pp
to 97¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 95¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 93¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 94¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 95¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 46.5pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.5pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 47.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.0pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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