Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29?
Probability
74¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$234.99
Liquidity
$20.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 74¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 97h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $20.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 97.4h
- 14:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 97h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:33PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 74¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 71¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 72¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).