Bitcoin ETF Flows on April 28?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-61.0pp
24h Vol
$84.17
Liquidity
$49.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 61pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 04UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:42SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 22:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 9h ago
Price movement
-61.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -55.0pp at 05:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 06:42 · -55.0pp → 0¢
- 05:00 · -55.0pp → 0¢
- 04:00 · -52.5pp → 0¢
- 01:00 · -30.5pp → 22¢
- 00:00 · -33.0pp → 22¢
- 22:00 · -38.0pp → 14¢
- 20:00 · -37.5pp → 15¢
- 15:00 · +42.0pp → 95¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.