Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET

1. 1

   Down 32pp over 24h

   Now 19¢; -34.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 3.2× turnover

   $18.2k traded against $5.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 0h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

5. 5

   Expiry in 0h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.