Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2AM ET
Probability
66¢
1h
+17.0pp
24h
+15.5pp
24h Vol
$17.0K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 66¢; +17.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 4.0× turnover
$17.0k traded against $4.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 0h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 4
Thin liquidity
Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 5
Expiry in 0h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 07:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 0.1h
- 06:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 0h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
2- BUYUP46s ago
- SELLUP46s ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.