CryptoExpires May 2, 2026
Creator

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2AM ET

Probability

99¢

1h

+47.9pp

24h

+49.4pp

24h Vol

$26.2K

Liquidity

$7.2K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 07:00May 2, 2026, 07:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 49pp over 24h

    Now 99¢; +47.9pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.6× turnover

    $26.2k traded against $7.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 07:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 07:00Resolve

    Market resolved 1h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+49.4pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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