Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25?
Probability
22¢
1h
-6.0pp
24h
-29.0pp
24h Vol
$96.5K
Liquidity
$31.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 4.6h
- 11:21SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 29.0pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 11:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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