Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 45¢; -8.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Momentum signal firing

   Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 22h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Expiry in 22h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.