Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 11pp over 24h

  Now 40¢; -14.0pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 21h.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $20.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 04
  Resolution proximity

  Expiry in 21h

  Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.