CryptoExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?

Probability

12¢

1h

-8.0pp

24h

-38.5pp

24h Vol

$134.0K

Liquidity

$14.3K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 1h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 29, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 31, 2026, 15:32 UTC
updated 15:32:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-31T15-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 39pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; -8.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 9.4× turnover

    $134.0k traded against $14.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 0h.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 0.5h

    HIGH
  • 15:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 0h.

    LOW

Price movement

-38.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

updated 15:32:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 15:32:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

2
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?"?

As of Sun, 31 May 2026 15:32:32 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -38.5pp in the last 24 hours, -8.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$134.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $134.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket