CryptoExpires May 4, 2026
Creator

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?

Probability

92¢

1h

+3.0pp

24h

+42.0pp

24h Vol

$131.5K

Liquidity

$26.5K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 17:00May 4, 2026, 05:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 42pp over 24h

    Now 92¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 5.0× turnover

    $131.5k traded against $26.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 42.0pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 11h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 11 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 10.9h

    HIGH
  • 05:07Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 42.0pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 05:07Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 11h.

    LOW

Price movement

+42.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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