Alba Berlin vs. Science City Jena
Probability
57¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$1.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periodsTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (37.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 37.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periodsTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (37.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 214.7h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.5pp at 23:00 (to 62¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 14:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 13:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 11:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 10:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 09:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 07:00 · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 23:00 · +11.5pp → 62¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 48¢-2.0
Knicks vs. 76ers
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 19¢+1.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.3M
- 66¢0.0
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Sports · Vol $774.9K
- 0¢-42.4
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $712.5K
- 0¢-21.9
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Sports · Vol $705.5K
- 0¢-33.5
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports · Vol $699.2K
Market Description
In the upcoming Germany BBL game, scheduled for May 10 at 10:30AM ET: If the Alba Berlin win, the market will resolve to "Alba Berlin". If the Science City Jena win, the market will resolve to "Science City Jena". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
enceReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ence" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Alba Berlin vs. Science City Jena"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 15:49:06 GMT, YES is priced at 57% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T14:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 37.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
