SportsExpires May 27, 2026
Creator

Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Probability

44¢

1h

-3.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$51.5K

Liquidity

$68.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods
Link
flashscore.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
43¢
May 18, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 20, 2026, 11:37 UTC
updated 12:23:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-20T12-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 44¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 7.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 27, 11:35 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 167.2h

    LOW
  • 12:23Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 7.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 12:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

updated 12:23:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 12:23:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for May 20 at 7:35AM ET: If the Beijing Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Ducks". If the Shanghai Sharks win, the market will resolve to "Shanghai Sharks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

ducks

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ducks" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks"?

As of Wed, 20 May 2026 12:23:10 GMT, YES is priced at 44% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, -3.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T11:35:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.flashscore.com/basketball/china/cba.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.flashscore.com/basketball/china/cba. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$51.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $53.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $68.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket