Nagasaki Velca vs. Alvark Tokyo
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+50.0pp
24h Vol
$2.4K
Liquidity
$45.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 164.5h
- 13:36SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+50.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +53.4pp at 13:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 13:00 · +53.4pp → 100¢
- 11:00 · +40.5pp → 91¢
- 10:00 · +14.5pp → 64¢
- 09:00 · +15.5pp → 66¢
- 07:00 · +19.5pp → 69¢
- 05:00 · +14.5pp → 64¢
- 04:00 · +14.5pp → 64¢
- 23:00 · +14.5pp → 65¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
In the upcoming Japan B League game, scheduled for May 8 at 6:05AM ET: If the Nagasaki Velca win, the market will resolve to "Nagasaki Velca". If the Alvark Tokyo win, the market will resolve to "Alvark Tokyo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Nagasaki Velca vs. Alvark Tokyo"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 13:36:46 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +50.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T10:05:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.bleague.jp/en/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bleague.jp/en/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $45.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
