SportsExpires May 24, 2026
Creator

Real Madrid vs. Joventut

Probability

0¢

1h

-1.9pp

24h

-74.5pp

24h Vol

$55.6K

Liquidity

$46.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 24, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods
Link
acb.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 12, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 13:25 UTC
updated 13:25:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T13-25Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 74pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -1.9pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 74.5pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 24, 10:30 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 165.1h

    LOW
  • 13:25Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 74.5pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 13:25Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-74.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -71.0pp at 13:25 (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
  • 13:25 · -71.0pp → 0¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • May 16, 11:00 UTC · +25.5pp → 76¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +25.5pp → 76¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +25.5pp → 76¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 74¢
updated 13:25:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:25:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 17 at 6:30AM ET: If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If the Joventut win, the market will resolve to "Joventut". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

real madrid

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "real madrid" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Real Madrid vs. Joventut"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 13:25:22 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -74.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 24, 2026 (2026-05-24T10:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.acb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$55.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $55.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $46.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket