$BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.8K
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 14, 2024
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryCoinbase (exchange price)TypeExchange priceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 14, 2024
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryCoinbase (exchange price)TypeExchange priceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Coinbase (exchange price)
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task $BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief $BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 11:27SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT: If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $45,000.01 and $47,500.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
btcReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "btc" — matched the Crypto rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "$BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 11:27:57 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 14, 2024 (2024-01-14T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $12.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
2 walletsNone.