Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Probability
12¢
1h
-17.0pp
24h
-38.5pp
24h Vol
$12.1K
Liquidity
$3.9K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot marketsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 39pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -17.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 3.1× turnover
$12.1k traded against $3.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot marketsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.0h
- 23:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h.
Price movement
-38.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Active signals
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Alerts
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