Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$15.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 22h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 22h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 22 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 01:45ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 21.9h
- 03:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 22h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot marketsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.