OtherExpires Apr 25, 2026

Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5

Probability

100¢

1h

+28.0pp

24h

+34.4pp

24h Vol

$23.2K

Liquidity

$59.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+35.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:02
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  1. 1

    Up 34pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +28.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 34.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

  5. 5

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 18:02Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 34.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 18:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:30Resolve

    Market resolved 2h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+34.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +36.0pp at 18:02 (to 100¢).

Show all 2 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:02 · +36.0pp → 100¢
  • 17:00 · +7.5pp → 72¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between Hamburger SV and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, scheduled for April 25 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Hamburger SV and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
official statisticsOfficial statistics
bundesliga.com
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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