Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$4.7K
Liquidity
$221.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.6h
- 09:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for April 25 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FSV Mainz 05". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesligaNews consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).