ChatGPT Outage by May 1?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$203.16
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 126.7h
- 17:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 39¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 39¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 41¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 46¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 49¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.