Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$89.29
Liquidity
$909.42
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 34¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 87.6h
Price movement
-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.5pp at 3d ago (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -7.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +7.5pp → 43¢
- 3d ago · +9.5pp → 42¢
- 3d ago · +8.5pp → 43¢
- 3d ago · +8.5pp → 44¢
- 4d ago · +7.5pp → 45¢
- 4d ago · +7.5pp → 45¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 10, 2026 If Yunnan Yukun FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:21:19 GMT, YES is priced at 34% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.csl-china.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$89.29 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $89.29. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $909.42. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
