Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 4 Winner
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$46.07
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 38h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 38 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 4 Winner State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 4 Winner State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 15, 02:30 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 38.1h
- 12:24SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 38h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 59¢+7.0
Games Total: O/U 3.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 20¢-26.0
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier
Other · Vol $52.14
- 25¢-24.5
Games Total: O/U 4.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 28¢-30.0
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 1 Winner
Other · Vol $9.00
- 40¢-12.0
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $0.00
- 27¢-24.0
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 3 Winner
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the Call of Duty match between Vancouver Surge and Paris Gentle Mates in the Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier, initially scheduled for June 14 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vancouver Surge" if Vancouver Surge win Game 4 against Paris Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Paris Gentle Mates" if Paris Gentle Mates win Game 4 against Vancouver Surge. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 4 Winner"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 12:24:52 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T02:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $46.07. Spread between best bid and best ask: 92.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.